Fantasy Football 2024: Ranking Sleepers, Busts and Safest Players This Year (2024)

Risk assessment plays a huge part in fantasy football success.

You can't completely avoid risk, as you need players who can outperform their draft costs. You obviously don't want too much of it, though, or you could torpedo your chances before the 2024 NFL campaign even kicks off.

To examine all ends of the risk spectrum, we'll spotlight our top-five safest picks, bust candidates and sleepers.

1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

2. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

3. Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

4. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys

5. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

McCaffrey's injury history might not qualify as safe for everyone, but there are injury risks with everyone who steps onto the field. If he simply stays healthy, though, he's the safest bet to post the most fantasy points among non-quarterbacks.

The 49ers added him at the 2022 trade deadline. In the 27 regular-season games he has played since, he has tallied 3,233 scrimmage yards and 31 touchdowns. For the non-math majors in the audience, that's an average output of 119.7 yards and 1.1 scores.

Allen and Hurts, meanwhile, combine arm talent with rushing ability to offer the best blends of high ceilings and elevated floors at the position. Allen and Hurts finished first and second, respectively, in fantasy scoring last season and were second and third, respectively, during the previous campaign, per FantasyPros.

Finally, target hogs like Lamb and Hill round out our safest selections. Lamb has been targeted 568 times over his four seasons in Dallas, and his frequency perpetually trends up. Hill has cleared 1,700 receiving yards in each of his two seasons in Miami and scored 21 times over his tenure.

1. D'Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears

2. Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

3. Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams

4. Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

5. Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions

Swift is on his third team in three seasons, which is a cause for concern on its own. The worries go well beyond that, though. He doesn't have a clean injury history or stellar marks in advanced rushing stats. It's also unclear where he'll sit within the offense's hierarchy, as the Bears have a rookie quarterback who can run, a loaded receiving core and two other capable rushers in the same backfield (Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson).

Etienne's season-long production was strong, but his volume and efficiency both tapered off late in the season. He was the third-highest scoring running back through Week 9, per FantasyPros, but he slipped all the way to RB18 after. If the Jaguars have any worries about Etienne holding up over a full season, they could ramp up the usage of 2023 third-rounder Tank Bigsby.

Williams' upside is enormous, but his injury history is terrifying. He had a high-ankle sprain and a Jones fracture in 2022 and then a hip contusion, another high-ankle sprain and a broken hand in the playoffs last season. If injuries don't get the better of him, the chance that they could might convince the Rams to utilize third-round rookie Blake Corum to reduce Williams' workload.

Barkley's football situation improved upon his move to Philadelphia, but his fantasy outlook probably dimmed. He's been quietly trending down for a while now (3.9 yards per carry and career-low 4.3 targets per game last season), and he's heading into an offense with a running quarterback and high-end receivers.

LaPorta is fine if he's being drafted as a member of the tight end position's top tier, but he too often leads the position. If you're spending a third- or even second-round pick on him, that's asking more than he'll be able to deliver. If his touchdown count comes down (his 10 scores as a rookie really rocketed up his fantasy value), he could be more good than great as a complementary pass-catcher in a run-first offense.

1. Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys

2. Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

3. Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

4. Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons

5. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Dowdle has a non-zero chance of becoming the primary running back for the Cowboys, who had last season's highest-scoring offense. He's simply more explosive than Ezekiel Elliott, who will probably open the year as Dallas' starter but could lose the gig pretty quickly if he doesn't show more juice than last season, when he averaged an atrocious and career-worst 3.5 yards per carry.

Worthy, this year's No. 28 pick, could emerge as a favorite target of one Patrick Mahomes. It's not guaranteed to go down, of course, but Rashee Rice could face a suspension, Marquise Brown is fighting a shoulder injury and Travis Kelce is approaching his 35th birthday. If nothing else, Worthy should be the preferred field-stretching option for Mahomes.

Murray should be free and clear of the ACL tear that ended his 2022 season and delayed his 2023 campaign. When he's healthy, he can be all-caps AWESOME in fantasy, and that was true before Arizona invested the No. 4 pick in plug-and-play star receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

Cousins is 36 years old, coming off a torn Achilles and backed up by a top-10 pick (No. 8 pick Michael Penix Jr.). There are certainly ways Cousins' campaign could go awry. If they don't, though, he could wind up among the most productive players at his position. He was QB6 at the time of his injury last season, and he now has Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson at his disposal.

Kupp's designation as a sleeper will hinge on how your league handles him, but if he makes it to the late third round or beyond, he has massive steal potential. The last time he was healthy, he delivered 145 receptions on 191 targets for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. And he's still working with the same quarterback (Matthew Stafford) and head coach (Sean McVay) as back then.